Expert Week 13 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick ’em Pools, Survivor Pools

first_imgWe’re getting down to crunch time in NFL football pools, and those still alive in their survivor pool or competing for prizes in pick ’em pools can’t afford any mistakes. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are here to help with advice and tips for your Week 13 NFL picks. Armed with the information in this post, you can make calculated bets on high-value Week 13 picks in your football pools, and avoid trendy upset picks that aren’t worth the risk. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. More From TeamRankings:Football Pick ’em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting PicksGet our Week 13 Survivor Pool pick recommendationOnce you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 13, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. But there are a lot of potential decisions to make. Not all of them will make sense for your specific pool(s), and it takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answers. Fortunately, we’ve built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you. You can use the links above to learn more about our data-driven game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick ’em and survivor pools. More From TeamRankings:Football Pick ’em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting PicksWeek 13 NFL Pick ’em Pool Tips, AnalysisReview of last week’s pick ’em analysisLast week, we highlighted two favorites (San Francisco and Philadelphia) and one underdog (Jets). Unfortunately, as can be the risk in writing earlier in the week, Philadelphia’s offensive injury issues moved them to the underdog role and took away their value. The other two picks, San Francisco and the Jets, both won handily, with New York beating up on favored Oakland. Overall, the public got 1.5 wins on average in those three games compared to two correct for our recommendations, so we still came out solidly on top.WEEK 13 FANTASY RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerValue picks for NFL Week 13 pick ’em poolsGetting the biggest edge in your NFL pick ’em pool requires knowing not only every team’s win odds (i.e. how risky of a pick it is), but also how popular of a pick it is. When you pick less popular teams and they win, you’ll shoot up your office pool standings.Based on win odds and pick popularity, the three teams below either offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 13 picks from your pool opponents. To get all our pick recommendations for your pool — customized for its size, rules, and prize structure — check out our Football Pick ’em Picks product.Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our football picks product updates multiple times per day.Value FavoriteWeek 13 features a favorite that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side.Cleveland Browns (at Pittsburgh)Just two weeks ago, the Browns beat up on the Steelers in a game famous for what happened at the end of it. It appears that the public is expecting a revenge game for the Steelers against their former punching bag. But Cleveland is the slight betting favorite in this one, while the public is taking the Steelers 64 percent of the time.Pittsburgh just announced that Devlin Hodges is starting at QB instead of Mason Rudolph for this one. Keep in mind that this is a division game of the type that has shown reduced home field advantage: Outdoor rivals in close proximity to each other. Cleveland can tie Pittsburgh in the standings and be right in the wild card mix in the AFC with a win.Unpopular Toss-UpWhen a matchup is pretty much a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick ’em pool, you’re probably going to need some luck in these “coin flip” games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside by scoring points the majority of your opponents miss.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Jacksonville)The Buccaneers got a big road win at Atlanta last week and will try again at Jacksonville. The Jaguars have not won in the month of November and have lost each of their last three games by at least 20 points.The public, though, still likes the Jaguars in this one, picking them 66 percent of the time. The betting markets have the Bucs as the slight one-point underdog, while our models are more optimistic about Tampa this week and put them as the favorite with 56-percent win odds.With this game as a near-toss-up, getting Tampa Bay here where only about a third of the public is going with them is good value.Value GambleThe pick below is not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, it may not be worth the risk. However, if you’re in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes, highly unpopular underdogs have a compelling profile.Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis)The Titans lost at home to the Colts back in Week 2, but there is some value in playing for Tennessee to return the favor this time around. Indianapolis is being selected 76 percent of the time (identical to Baltimore), but are just a 2.5-point favorite against the Titans.Tennessee has been an inconsistent team this year but is surging following the move to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Tannehill is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and the Titans are 4-1 since the switch. The Colts, meanwhile, have seen their close game luck dry up, and now sit at 6-5 after the 5-2 start.The Titans are a slight dog here, but since you can gain ground on three-quarters of your pool with a win, it might be an option worth considering.More From TeamRankings:Football Pick ’em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting PicksWeek 13 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, AnalysisReview of last week’s survivor pick analysisLast week, our strategy of mostly avoiding the extremely popular Browns did not work out for some entries. Our two most common recommendations were the Saints and Falcons. The Saints survived against Carolina after surrendering a big lead, while Atlanta could not come back against Tampa Bay. As a result, 68 percent of our recommendations survived versus 88% for the public (the public’s biggest losses were Detroit, Atlanta, and Oakland).So, it was a tough week for us, but for the year, 1.7% of the public entries are still alive in standard rules suvivor pools, compared to 6.8% for our subscriber pick recommendations, so our advice is still providing a 4x value edge on the public entering Week 13.Week 13 survivor pool breakdownThe Carolina Panthers are the most popular choice (46 percent) in survivor this week and are favored by 10 points over Washington at home.The Kansas City Chiefs are also favored by 10 points against Oakland, but they have been used a little more by the public and also have more future value with an upcoming Week 15 game against Denver. The Chiefs’ popularity is at around 18 percent so far. Given the much lower popularity, Kansas City has the higher expected value, if you are in a position to go ahead and use them based on your Week 15 options.The third most popular choice this week is the Green Bay Packers, who are a six-point favorite at the Giants. The Packers are a little riskier, with win odds about eight-percent lower than both Kansas City and Carolina based on the betting market implied odds. The Chiefs and Panthers are about 80-percent win odds and Green Bay is at 72 percent. Green Bay also looks like the top win odds option next week when they get Washington at home, so it looks like a team you might want to save. None of the Thanksgiving options made the top three most popular choices this week, even though a couple are reasonable options, and there is another choice that also makes sense in many pools this week. If you need help deciding who to use this week, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product for customized advice for you pool.last_img read more